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Shelby County is the 100th largest of the 254 counties in Texas; with an estimated population of 22,658 in 1991. The county seat of Shelby is Center and the next most significant city is Timpson. Shelby county is a Rural county which lies within the Deep East Texas JTPA service delivery area and the Deep East Texas Quality Workforce Planning region, administered by the Deep East Qwfp.

Even though congressional districts and counties have boundaries which overlap, Shelby county falls within the 10th Texas congressional district(s) and the 3rd Texas senatorial district(s).

The county consists of 778 square miles with a 1990 population density 28.50 residents per square mile. The average density in Texas is 65.6 persons per square mile. Rainfall in the county averages 49.70 inches per year compared to the Texas average of 21.0 inches per year.

The average growing season in Shelby county is 240 days with the average first freeze generally occurring around Nov 12. Texas is so climatically diverse that statewide averages are irrelevant as a means of comparison. 

According to the 1980 Census, Shelby county had a population of 23,084. Forecasts from DRI/McGraw-Hill estimate the 1993 population to be 23,647 and the 1998 population projected at 25,759. This would represent a change of 2,112 between 1993 and 1998 or a change of 8.93 percent over the period. The median age of the 1989 population was 38 years old versus a statewide average of 30.9 years and a national average 35.9 years.

The county race/ethnic distribution in 1990 is estimated by the Census Bureau to be roughly as indicated by the table below (left):

Other age cohorts may be of special interest for JTPA summer youth programs and older worker programs. Shelby county has 2,428 persons age 14-21 representing 11.02 percent of the population. This compares with 12.21 percent statewide. For the potential older worker age
cohort, 6,510 persons or 29.55 percent are 55 or over in Shelby county based on the 1990 census. This compares to 17.62 percent statewide.

If the population cohort 45 and over is higher than the state average, this suggests a stable, mature population comprised of mainly "empty-nesters," retirees and the aged. When the 25-44 age cohort is higher than the state average, this is a healthy economic situation since this group contains the greatest share of the productive labor force. Decreases over time in this group, especially when similar changes are not occurring statewide, can be an indication that people are moving out of an area they consider to be a poor labor market.

The county had about 9,201 households in 1990 according to the DRI/McGraw Hill economic forecasting organization. This represents an average of 2.41 persons per household. This figure is lower than the 1993 DRI estimate of 2.70 persons per household. Statewide, DRI estimates 2.74 persons per household in 1993 with a total of roughly 6.56 million Texas households.

The 1990 Census counted the mobility of households during the 1985 to 1990 period. Based on these figures, 87.60 percent of Shelby county residents lived either in the same house in 1990 as they did in 1985, or in a different house but still within Shelby county. The Texas statewide average was 77.50 percent with little difference between metro counties (77.14%) and rural counties (79.08%). A number less than the state average generally indicates more in-migration and probably an expanding job base. Since the 1990 census asks questions of persons living in the county, those persons leaving the area for whatever reason are not counted in that county!

The average commuting time to work for the employed labor force in the county is roughly 19.60 minutes based on 1990 Census estimates. The Texas average is 17.9 minutes, however for metro counties the time is 21.2 minutes and for rural counties the figure is 17.0.

The Department of Human Services (DHS) estimated a poverty population for Shelby county of 5,440 persons in 1988 which represented 22.07 percent of the non-institutional population. The 1990 DHS poverty rate was 28.14 percent. The 1990 Census shows a total of 5,779 persons
below the poverty line, defined as $6,451 for single persons by the Census bureau in 1989. Roughly 3,406,739 Texans for 20.05 percent of the total population fell beneath the poverty line income in 1989. Although comparable county data are unavailable, the Texas poverty population is estimated at 3,559,000 persons in 1993 for a poverty rate of 20.00 percent. This exceeds the U.S. poverty rate of 14.20 percent for 1993.

Shelby county incurred over $3,934,883 in combined food stamp and AFDC payments in FY1991 with $3,004,897 going to food stamp recipients. There were 1,290 AFDC recipients in FY1991 in Shelby county with the average annual payment per recipient at $720.92. The Texas average was $703.84 per recipient.

The county had $1,374,803 in Unemployment Insurance benefits paid during calendar 1991. The average duration of unemployment for TEC Regular UI claimants statewide in calendar 1992 was 16.2 weeks. This figure has risen steadily from 14.59 weeks in 1990 and 15.17 weeks in 1991. In Shelby county, the average duration before exhausting regular UI benefits in calendar 1992 was 19.30 weeks. The most likely interpretation of longer duration times is greater difficulty finding a job. Therefore, duration can serve as a good barometer for local general economic conditions. The average weekly benefits payment for Regular UI in CY1992 was $169.63 in statewide Texas, up from $163.97 in CY1991. Comparable county data is closed.

Income can be viewed in several ways and under different definitions. The per capita personal income level for Shelby county was $10,990 in 1988 with a statewide average of $14,590. By 1990, Shelby county per capita income had increased to $13,619. Per capita income tends to
have a direct relationship with the growth of retail sales and most service sector industries in an area. Retail sales for the county were $104,129,000 in 1988 and are projected to increase to $160,838,000 in 1995.

The median household income for families, based on the 1990 Census was $17,446 for Shelby county. This compares to $27,016 statewide. This figure is much higher than the per capita income level because it includes all wage earners within a single household.

Total personal income is a widely used measure of regional economic health while per capita income is generally used to compare the relative well-being of residents across areas (not accounting for differences in area cost of living). According to DRI, total personal income from all sources in the county was $300,000,000 in 1990 and projected to be $401,000,000 by 1995.

One last way to measure income is in terms of purchasing power. Sales & Marketing Management magazine(SMM) generates a buying power index (BPI) which incorporates disposable after-tax income as a measure of a household's ability to purchase retail services. The 1990 BPI for Shelby county was $23,239 with a 1995 projected level of $28,488. The statewide figures are $34,899 and $46,225 for the same 1990 and 1995 time periods. Because SMM makes different assumptions for household size and uses an "average" rather than a median level of household earnings, some counties may have a BPI higher than the median household income.

Some counties function as major employment centers and others serve as "bedroom communities". This means that residents may work in one county but live, pay taxes and spend most of their income in their resident county. The degree to which a county serves as a bedroom
community can be measured by a "residence adjustment" to the county personal income. The residence adjustment in Shelby county was $26,446,000 in 1988. By 1990 however, the adjustment had risen to $28,259,000. A negative number implies that workers commute into the
county to earn income but do not reside there. Growth over time of negative residence adjustments generally implies an eroding tax base for the county. Similarly, a positive figure implies that on balance the county exports jobs and income to surrounding county residents.

The average weekly wage for all covered employment in Shelby county in the first quarter of 1992 was $295.55. This compares to the statewide average of $445.65.

The county had 4 commercial banks in 1991, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank in Dallas, with total deposits of $155,565,000 and assets of $169,088,000. This represents an increase between calendar year 1988 and 1991. The 1991 deposit to population ratio was $6,865.79 for Shelby county compared to the Texas average of $8,389. A ratio less than the state average generally indicates the presence of an adjacent county serving as a regional financial center.

The county civilian labor force was 11,217 in March 1992 reflecting an increase from the March 1990 level of 10,397. According to the Texas Employment Commission (TEC), total unemployment in March 1992 was 814 contrasted to the March 1990 total of 580. The Shelby county unemployment rate for March 1990 was 5.60 percent. Compared to the March 1992 rate of 7.10 percent, the March 1993 rate of 6.20 percent was lower than the previous year. The statewide unemployment rate was 7.4 percent in March 1992 and 6.7 percent in March 1993.

As with population estimates, measures of employed persons vary depending on the data source and definition of employment. DRI annual average estimates of wage and salary employment for 1993 estimate Shelby county to have 6,609 employed persons with projections of 7,081 in 1995 and 7,403 in 1998. The reader should keep in mind that employment projections at the county level are potentially volatile because changes such as a plant relocation could significantly alter the growth trend.

The TEC indicates 450 business reporting units in the first quarter of 1992 with an average of 13.40 workers per unit. Average firm size makes a difference for job hunting and job development strategy because larger firms tend to have better defined ports of entry and in-house training capabilities. Although definitions vary, small business can be defined as less than 50 workers and medium sized is 250 or less. The Texas average is 19.5 workers per unit.

Total agricultural employment is not measured by these data. A new survey-based estimate conducted by the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service in cooperation with the Texas Department of Commerce reveals 1,060 total farm and ranch employment for Shelby county in January 1993 with 790 of those being self-employed farmers/ranchers. The totals include self-employed, unpaid family workers and hired workers and are not seasonally adjusted. The January 1993 figures are contrasted by the January 1991 levels of 1,400 total employment with 860 of those being self-employed proprietors.

The non-agricultural industry employment distribution for Shelby county by major industry sector for 1993 is as illustrated in the table below:

Relative to the Texas economy, the SOICC economic diversification index measures the degree to which a county economy is diversified. Significant concentrations of employment in only one or two sectors makes an area less diversified and more susceptible to widespread economic decline should a key sector suffer a significant loss. The Shelby county economy is classified as Somewhat Diversified within a range from poorly diversified to very diversified.

The 1990 Census allows a look at the occupational distribution of employment in Shelby county as well. The following categories will likely not add up to 100 percent due to rounding error. The occupational titles are defined by the Census classification system. EACH OCCUPATION IS FOLLOWED BY TEXAS STATEWIDE PERCENTAGES IN PARENTHESES.

It is very difficult to get an accurate assessment of education quality and problems at the county level. It can be argued that measures of academic achievement such as SAT or ACT test scores are not comparable due to differences in curricula, economic and demographic characteristics of students and other issues.

Educational attainment numbers do not reflect course matter or quality of education but rather cumulative exposure to the education system. The percent of persons 25 and over in Shelby county who have completed at least a high school degree was 44 percent in 1980. This figure has increased to 57.28 percent in 1990. Statewide, Texas experienced a significant increase from 62.6 percent completing at least a high school education in 1980, to 72.1 percent in 1990.

In addition, Shelby county had 8.78 percent of its residents age 25 and over with a college degree (Bachelors) or more in 1990. This compares to 20.3 percent statewide for 1990 and 16.9 percent in 1980.

School districts in Shelby county showed 4,295 Average Daily Attendance (ADA) in the 1990 school year which represents an increase from ADA totals in the 1986 school year of 4,248. Estimates of public school dropouts for the 1990-91 school year were 57. This compares to 73 in the 1988-89 year. Longitudinal dropout rates for the entire 7-12 period are not available, but the annual dropout rate for Shelby county was 2.90 for 1990-91. Longitudinal rates are between 5 and 6 times the annual rate with greater numbers of dropouts occurring after the 9th grade.

Additional information on education quality is available by school district from the Texas Education Agency (TEA) through the newly developed Academic Excellence Indicators System (AEIS).

1. The county had a November 1988 voter turnout of 8,260 of which 48.40 percent voted Republican for President.

In the 1992 presidential election there were 13,616 registered voters. Voter turnout was 63.93 percent of which 3,217 persons voted for Mr. Bush for 36.96 percent. Mr. Clinton received 45.79 percent of the Shelby county vote while Mr. Perot received 17.08 percent.

For the November 1990 elections featuring the race for Governor, there were 13,282 total registered voters in the county, of which 5,640 or 42.50 percent actually cast ballots. Of those voting, 3,247 voted Democratic or 57.60 percent of the total Shelby county return. Statewide, Ann Richards garnered 1,925,670 total votes or 49.47 percent of the total.

2. There were 16 licensed physicians in the county in 1989 with a population to physician ratio of 1,476 residents per physician. The Texas average was 583 residents per physician. In 1991, there were 12 doctors in the county with a population to physician ratio of 1,888. The statewide average in 1991 was 565 with 30,796 practicing physicians.

3. Crime occurs in every county but not all occurrences are reported. According to the Uniform Crime Reports, there were 932 total major reported crimes in the county in 1989 with an average of 4,146.09 major crimes per 100,000 population in 1989. The statewide average of major crimes per 100,000 population was 7,983 in 1989. In 1991, there were 901 major crimes committed in the county which equates to 3,976.52 per 100,000 population representing a decrease of -3.33 percent between 1989 and 1991. The Texas average per 100,000 population in 1991 was 7,791. Based on these data, major crime in Shelby county was 51.04 percent of the Texas average. A major crime includes murder, rape, assault, burglary, robbery, theft, and motor vehicle theft.